Bubble tea, frozen yoghurt and dessert franchises in Australia: trend or durable business?

• Google Trends scores each search term from 0 to 100 against its own peak, so it shows direction over time, not the number of searches.
• Dessert and drink franchises are costly to set up: FranchiseScope's analysis of Register profiles captured on 19 August 2026 found median setup estimates of $305,250 (low, 41 profiles) and $689,250 (high, 40 profiles) across 50 bakery and dessert franchisors. Bubble tea brands sit in quick-service food, where the medians were $303,000 and $661,084.
• Supply is almost always tied: 46 of 48 bakery and dessert profiles restrict where franchisees can buy goods or services.
• Of about 17,969 food and beverage services businesses that started in 2021–22, about 47.5% were still trading in June 2025 (ABS, approximate, not franchise-specific).
• Stress-test any trending concept on its worst month, its lease and its supply costs, not on the queue at its launch.

FranchiseScope checked Australian web search interest from 2004 to September 2026 on 23 September 2026. Each term is indexed against its own peak, so compare shapes, not levels between terms.

• Bubble tea: yearly average interest climbed from about 8 in 2016 to 54 in 2021, then eased to about 29 across January to September 2026.
• The highest single month, January 2023, was a one-off spike: the months either side sat below 50.
• Boba, another name for bubble tea, followed a similar path, rising to a peak in 2022 and easing each year since.
• Frozen yoghurt (Australian spelling): interest had an early peak in 2013–14, fell back by 2016 and has risen steadily since, reaching its highest yearly average in 2026.
• Frozen yoghurt interest peaks every January and dips around May and June, a sign of seasonality to test against real sales.
• Over the past five years, bubble tea interest relative to all searches was highest in Western Australia and lowest in New South Wales among the five most populous states.
• Register categories: FranchiseScope's bakery and dessert category covers ice cream, gelato, donut and most frozen yoghurt brands (50 profiles, median setup estimates $305,250 to $689,250), while bubble tea brands sit in the quick-service food category (205 profiles, $303,000 to $661,084).

A concept can grow fast on novelty and leave late buyers with expensive leases. The ACCC's information statement for prospective franchisees names two warning signs.

• Churning: one site with many owners, which the ACCC says could mean the location isn't suitable.
• Burning: high turnover across a system, which the ACCC says might mean it has expanded too quickly or without a plan to make existing businesses successful.
• Growth measured only in openings, with little information on closures, transfers or sales at established outlets.
• Small systems: the median bakery and dessert profile on the Register reported 10 franchisees (48 profiles), and results from a handful of outlets are thin evidence.
• The disclosure document must give contact details for franchisees who left in the last three years, unless they asked not to be listed, so call them.
• It must also include the history of the site or territory you are offered, in a separate document, so you can see how previous operators fared.

• Dessert and drink outlets tend to need high-traffic sites such as shopping centres and food precincts, where rent and required trading hours can be demanding.
• If the franchisor or an associate leases the site to you, it must give you the head lease or a summary of its commercial terms before you sign.
• Check whether the lease runs as long as the franchise term, and what it would cost to leave early if the concept fades.
• Ask for monthly sales from existing outlets across at least two summers and two winters, because demand for cold desserts and drinks can be seasonal.
• Ask how many outlets of the same brand or similar concepts trade within walking distance of your site.
• For agreements from 1 November 2025, the agreement must give you a reasonable opportunity to make a return, within the term, on the investment the franchisor requires.

Trending drinks and desserts depend on specific ingredients, usually bought through the franchisor's approved suppliers. That brings cost and legal questions.

• 46 of 48 bakery and dessert profiles (95.8%) restrict where franchisees buy goods or services, the highest share of any category, against 70.2% across all profiles. For quick-service food, where bubble tea sits, it is 177 of 200 (88.5%).
• 16 of 47 bakery and dessert profiles (34%) say the franchisor can vary the agreement on its own, compared with 27.6% across all categories.
• The disclosure document must describe supply arrangements, restrictions on buying elsewhere, any interest the franchisor has in required suppliers and any rebates or other financial benefits it receives.
• Supply restrictions are a form of exclusive dealing, which is lawful unless it substantially lessens competition, and the ACCC says some supply restrictions can be unfair contract terms.
• Ask what happens to your costs if a key ingredient becomes scarce or the franchisor changes suppliers, and whether price increases are limited.
• Standard 3.2.2A covers food service and retail businesses that handle unpackaged, potentially hazardous, ready-to-eat food, so confirm with your council which category your outlet falls into.

If you plan to employ young casual staff, the award rules and the coming junior rate changes matter to your numbers.

• A takeaway drinks or dessert business selling mainly for consumption elsewhere may fall under the Fast Food Industry Award, while cafes are named in the Restaurant Industry Award. Check your format with the Fair Work Pay and Conditions Tool.
• Under the Fast Food Industry Award, a level 1 adult earns at least $27.81 an hour from 1 July 2026, and juniors are paid from 40% of the adult rate under 16 to 90% at age 20.
• The Fair Work Commission has said employees aged 18 to 20 with more than 6 months' service will move to the adult rate, introduced gradually and possibly from 1 December 2026, with no change for under-18s.
• Illustration: when fully phased in, a 19-year-old level 1 employee with more than 6 months' service would move from 80% to 100% of the adult rate, a 25% rise in that employee's base rate.
• Casuals receive a 25% loading, and weekend, public holiday and late-night work attracts higher rates.
• Ask the franchisor whether its sales projections and wage percentages already allow for these changes.

1. Get trading data, not headlines: weekly sales for existing outlets over at least two years, including their first year and the most recent one.
2. Check the trend yourself: look up the concept and its generic product in Google Trends for your state over five years, remembering it shows relative interest only.
3. Count closures and transfers: compare outlets opened with those closed or sold over the last three years in the disclosure document.
4. Model a 25% fall from the franchisor's sales figures and check you could still pay rent, wages and loan repayments.
5. Check the lease exit: what it would cost to leave if the concept fades before the lease ends.
6. Price your supply risk: what share of your costs goes to required suppliers, and whether they can raise prices during the term.
7. Ask current franchisees in person whether sales have grown, held or fallen since their first year.
8. Have an accountant test the numbers and a franchise lawyer review the lease and agreement together.

• Read the site history and the former franchisee list in the disclosure document.
• Check the Register profile for setup costs, supply restrictions and one-sided change rights.
• Get monthly sales from existing outlets across summer and winter.
• Get supplier price lists and the rebate disclosure.
• Build a wage budget at 1 July 2026 award rates that allows for the junior rate changes.
• Compare the lease term, the franchise term and your payback period.
• Confirm your food safety duties with your council.
• Get independent legal and accounting advice before you sign.